Project #11

Assessment of the impact of advanced seismic hazard modelling approaches in earthquake risk

Main Supervisor: Vitor Silva (GEM)
Co-Supervisor: Bruno Pace (Ud’A)

Location:Fondazione GEM, Pavia (Italy) –

Duration of the PhD: 3 years

The doctoral candidate will be enrolled in a PhD program at the Università degli Studi di Chieti-Pescara

In this DC project the impact of advanced hazard modelling approaches will be investigated for earthquake scenarios and probabilístic seismic risk. For the earthquake scenarios, historical and hypothetical events will be modelled. We will explore metrics such as the number of collapsed structures, fatalities and economic losses. This part of the DC will be performed in close collaboration with public partners of GEM, which have experience with the integration of risk results in disaster risk management. Through a secondment at Ud’A, diferent time-dependent and fault-based seismic hazard models will be used to assess earthquake losses and select seismic scenarios. On the probabilistic seismic risk counterpart, this DC will explore critical risk metrics for the (re)Insurance industry such as average annualized losses and probable maximum losses. These metrics will be computed using OpenQuake, thus allowing the scientific community to replicate the results. Different PSHA models will be considered, based on the different modelling techniques described by DC8, DC9 and DC10. This part of the DC will be performed in collaboration with Willis (with a secondment), who has extensive experience in the development of insurance products. These activities will allow understanding how different hazard modelling techniques affect the risk results, and therefore how risk assessment should be designed, potentially suggesting a review of the existing building codes.